At a track known for side-by-side racing and plenty of destroyed fenders, Brad Keselowski kept it clean and green last fall to win the Richmond fall race, which was held without a single unscheduled caution flag. That trend isn't likely to continue Sunday at the 2021 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond, though Keselowski will once again be one of the drivers expected to contend from green to checkered. The Toyota Owners 400 2021 is set to begin at 3 p.m. ET at the .75-mile Richmond Speedway, with Keselowski needing to work his way from a 20th-place starting position to win.

Martin Truex Jr. hasn't been lower than third in his last four runs at Richmond and is the 7-2 favorite in the latest 2021 Toyota Owners 400 odds at William Hill Sportsbook. Keselowski and Denny Hamlin are both 5-1, with Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson each 13-2 on the 2021 NASCAR at Richmond odds board. Before you scour the 2021 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup and make any NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Toyota Owners 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

During the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in four of the last five races. Last week, it had Martin Truex Jr. at the top of its projected leaderboard at Martinsville, nailing his victory for a 3-1 payout. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 Toyota Owners 400 leaderboard.

Top 2021 Toyota Owners 400 predictions

One shocker: the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he's a 10-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Richmond odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch is trending upward after a tough start to the 2021 season, finishing in the top 10 in three of his last five races this season.

Busch ran third at Las Vegas and fifth at Atlanta before notching a 10th-place finish last week at Martinsville. He is no stranger to Richmond, winning six Cup Series races, including five spring races, at the short track. Busch starts Sunday's race from the 10th position, and with Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota power under the hood, the veteran should be a prime component in your 2021 Toyota Owners 400 bets, according to the model.

Another massive surprise: Chase Elliott, one of the top Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values in the loaded 2021 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion has had a rough start to the year overall, finishing outside the top 10 in four of his eight starts.

Even though Elliott is coming off a strong second-place showing at Martinsville last week, he hasn't been able to punch through at Richmond yet. In fact, Elliott has finished 10th or worse in seven of his 10 career starts there, including two finishes outside the top 10 in his last three starts.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Richmond picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Richmond odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 Toyota Owners 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Toyota Owners 400 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed at least seven of the top 10 drivers in three of the last four races. 

2021 Toyota Owners 400 odds 

Martin Truex Jr. 7-2
Denny Hamlin 5-1
Brad Keselowski 5-1
Kyle Larson 13-2
Chase Elliott 13-2
Joey Logano 8-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
William Byron 25-1
Christopher Bell 28-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 75-1
Aric Almirola 75-1
Tyler Reddick 75-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 125-1
Ryan Newman 125-1
Cole Custer 200-1
Chris Buescher 250-1
Austin Cindric 250-1
Daniel Suarez 250-1
Michael McDowell 300-1
Ross Chastain 300-1
Erik Jones 300-1
Chase Briscoe 300-1
Ryan Preece 500-1
Justin Haley 2000-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1